Gamblers Anonymous

Let me tell you straight up, betting on the favorite ain't the cozy blanket some folks think it is. One bad move and bam! You can kiss goodbye to a bunch of wins. Let's get into how you can spot the perfect match to back the favorite and snag that sweet bet with the best odds, shall we?

Big shoutout to the 'Championat' Betting Academy and FONBET for this gem. Dive into sports betting, ace those quizzes, level up your experience, and climb that leaderboard. Show the chief editor who's boss!

Favorite Betting Strategy Unwrapped

This whole shebang is about playing it safe, or so they say, betting on the low odds — think under 1.55. It's like the security blanket of betting strategies.

But let's be real, staying ahead over the long haul with this approach? Tricky business. One slip and you're wiping out three, maybe four of your winning streaks.

Picking the Perfect Match for Your Favorite Bet

Going against the favorite? You're looking for the matches that defy analysis, where the underdog's shot at victory is pretty much zilch.

And hey, don't throw your money on a favorite's win when:

Peep the stats, and you'll see favorites mostly come out on top in handball, basketball, and good ol' American football. Football's a bit more of a gamble, with their winning rate hovering just over 50%.

For predictability's sake, handball, basketball, and the likes have seen favorite odds drop below 1.10. That's why the smart money's on tennis or football, where you'll typically catch odds from 1.20 and up.

A No-Frills Example of Betting on the Favorite

Take, for example, the 29th round of the 2019/2020 Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund hit the road and showed Paderborn who's boss with a smashing 6:1 win.

Before the kickoff, odds on the home team's win were way up at 8.70, but a Dortmund victory was sitting pretty at 1.33. With odds more than double in favor, this match was ripe for a favorite bet.

Sure, you gotta dig into those matches, not just chase the bookies' lines. But for this match-up, the stats were like a big neon sign saying "Bet on Dortmund!" Paderborn was at the bottom of the league, and Dortmund? They crushed six of their last seven Bundesliga encounters before this showdown.

Scoring the Best Bet on Football Favorites

First off, figure out your breakeven point — that's the percentage of bets you gotta nail to break even with your average odds.

T = 100 / K, where K is your average odds.

So let's say you're playing with an average odds of 1.25. Your bets need to hit the mark at least 80% of the time: that's 100 divided by 1.25.

Get ahead of the game. Bet on the favorite early on. Sometimes bookies dish out lines for the big matches weeks in advance. If you're confident your favorite will field their A-team, lock in your bet.

Because here's the thing — tons of folks will be piling on bets for that team's win. That volume of bets can push the odds down because of the heavy action.

Take the Juventus vs. SPAL match in the 25th round of the 2019/2020 Serie A. Initially, odds for a Juventus win were at 1.48 but dropped to 1.40 by game time. What's that mean for you?

With odds at 1.48, hitting the breakeven point meant winning 67.57% of your bets. At 1.40 odds, you'd need a win rate of at least 71.43%.

Stretch that over 10,000 bets, and you're looking at a huge difference. To break even, you'd need 6,757 wins at the initial odds, but with the lower odds, you'd need 7,143.

Betting on the favorite isn't the holy grail of strategies. But with a sharp eye for the right matches and timing your bets just right, you could be laughing all the way to the bank.